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Precipitation beats four-month average<br>

According to Darren McCollum, lead forecaster with the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, as of last Thursday, the region had received 23.61 inches of precipitation for the year – not too far from the 30-year annual average of 22.85 inches. But 13.04 inches of that has come after Sept. 1; the average for the four-month period is 7.68 inches.

“We’ve been averaging three inches a month,” McCollum said. “That’s a lot of rain.”

In fact, in Flagstaff, last Wednesday’s rain was the second-heaviest rainfall seen in a 24-hour period for the past 100 years. There, four inches fell. Grand Canyon Village received 2.06 inches, the North Rim got two inches and about an inch and a half fell at Phantom Ranch.

Mcollum said the outlook is for more moisture.

“Given what we’re seeing, we should remain active in this pattern,” he said.

Why it’s been wetter than average this fall can’t be explained by a single phenomenon like el nino.

“We have a weak to moderate el nino,” he said. “But it’s not of the strength we associate with a really wet year. Without a strong la nina or el nino, we’re in the middle which is average territory.

It’s just too complicated to understand why this year is wet and last year was dry, due to subtle differences.”

The wet weather also doesn’t mean the end to the drought in the region, he said.

“Nothing short term like this can end a widespread and persistent drought,” he said. “We need about five years of normal to above normal precipitation.”

So far, he said that snow pack, which will determine the amount of runoff in the spring, is fairly low.

“It’s pretty much rained every place 7500 feet and lower,” McCollom said of last Wednesday’s storm. “There’s no snow pack at all below 7500 feet, and nothing really decent 8,000 feet or higher. There’s snow on the mountain but it doesn’t come down particularly far, not compared to some years.”


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