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Lack of moisture could mean dangerous fire season is ahead
Fire officials urging caution

City Dam glistens in sunshine last week. No moisture this winter has may create a busy fire season for area firefighters. Homeowners are urged to remove forest debris and other fire hazards away from homes

City Dam glistens in sunshine last week. No moisture this winter has may create a busy fire season for area firefighters. Homeowners are urged to remove forest debris and other fire hazards away from homes

The lack of winter snowfall so far this year most likely means a dry and dangerous fire season for 2006.

That was the message from Kaibab National Forest Fire Information Officer Jackie Denk during a brief presentation at the Jan. 4 Williams Kiwanis Club meeting.

"If we continue with similar weather patterns through February and March, then we'll probably have a rough fire season," Denk said.

Denk explained that typically, more dangerous fire seasons come about when there is one and a half to two years of dryness after significant snowpack, not unlike the one during the winter of 2004-2005.

Since then, precipitation has been at a minimum, which means the forests might be primed for ignition this summer if dryness persists.

The Flagstaff Airport usually records an average of 1.83 inches worth of precipitation for December. December 2005 produced significantly reduced precipitation, recorded at just .01 inches.

For the entirety of fall 2005, only a trace of snowfall was recorded at the Flagstaff Airport ‹ 19.3 inches behind the norm. In comparison, the facility recorded 130.6 inches the previous season, ranking the 2004-2005 winter as the 15th snowiest on record.

However, the National Weather Service station in Bellemont recently released the following to local Forest Service personnel: "In terms of total precipitation since Sept. 1 ... Flagstaff has recorded 2.26 inches. This makes this the fourth driest period from Sept. 1 through Jan. 7 since weather records began in 1898."

Since Sept. 1, Williams has recorded 2.85 inches of precipitation while last year's abnormally wet season brought in a total of 16.03 inches.

A Southwest Coordination Center model provided by Denk shows most of northern Arizona in either an abnormally dry or moderate drought with the likelihood of intensification through the spring via slightly increasing temperatures and continued lack of moisture. The model blames a developing La Nina wind pattern for preventing storms from affecting the region.

In terms of relative dryness over the past 100 years, the National Oceanic and Atomspheric Administration (NOAA)-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Studies' Climate Diagnostics Center shows that only 10 percent of those years had a drier July-December period than 2005.

To make matters worse, last year's wet season prompted considerable growth of shrubs and fine herbaceous material on forest floors. This season's dryness has turned it all to potential wildfire fuel and Forest Service fire restrictions are already in place in New Mexico.

The outlook may not be so bad just yet, however. Winter seasons with late starts to precipitation often have at least one month with normal or above-normal rain or snowfall before winter's end.

Denk's presentation came with the prudent advice of being aware and being prepared.

She suggested that homeowners, especially those in high risk areas, start making or updating home emergency plans with items such as a common meeting place for family members, acquiring and storing the right supplies ‹ including necessary medications ‹ arranging care for pets, and thinning potentially hazardous areas of fuel on and around the homeowner's property.

"We're not urging panic, we're just encouraging caution right now," Denk said.

She added that locally high winds add an extra element of danger since most homes that burn in wildfires do so because of floating embers rather than the fire itself actually reaching the home.

In the meantime, the Rural Communities Fuels Management Partnership still has grant funds available for private property owners who need to implement fuels thinning.

Those interested can contact RCFMP Coordinator Art Matthias at (928) 523-8676 and right now, Coconino County Community Services is also taking applications for home safety grants, of which fuels thinning would qualify. See Page 3A of this week's News for details.

More information on preparing for the upcoming fire season can be found by logging on to www.firewise.org/tips.htm.


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